Container Traffic Could Nip Forecast
September 21, 2009Import cargo volume major U.S. retail container ports is now expected to total 12.5 million containers for 2009, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released Thursday by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.
The number is significantly below last year's total but shows improvement from the 12.3 million forecast a month ago.
"We're starting to see a pattern where import levels are still below last year but they're not as far below as they were just a few months ago," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "This matches up with other economic indicators that show the recession may be coming to an end."
The 12.5 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units now forecast for 2009 would be a drop of 17.7 percent form last year's 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 12.47 million TEU in 2003. The number was revised upward to reflect higher projected imports for each of the remaining months of the year as retailers anticipate that economic conditions will begin to ease.
U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.1 million TEU in July, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 8 percent from June but down 17 percent from July 2008, marking the 25th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline.
Volume for August was estimated at 1.13 million TEU, down 17 percent from last year, while September is forecast at 1.11 million TEU, down 18 percent. October, traditionally the peak month of the year, is forecast at 1.14 million TEU, down 17 percent. November is forecast at 1.07 million TEU, down 13 percent, and December is forecast at 1.04 million TEU, down 2 percent from 2008.
The 2 percent decline in December is significant because it would be the first single-digit decline of the year and compares with drops that have ranged from 15 percent to 32 percent. But January 2010 is forecast at 1.01 million TEU, down 18 percent from January 2009.
"Import container traffic is projected to be weak through January because of the slow pace of recovery from the recession and the slow period that follows the holiday season," IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. "We are seeing the annual cycle of month-to-month growth that will peak in October, but volume is still below last year's levels."
